Tuesday, April 11, 2006

Housekeeping Items.... (in reverse chronological order)

Recommend taking profits on half of Neumarkets position (NEU), stock is up about 10 points from where I recommended it at $36...in spite of being off nearly 10 points from yesterdays high at +$56!!!

Other trades, ALKS shouldve stopped out for a small loss at $25.50 a long time ago, CONR should have stopped out for at least a 5% gain, JOYG is up about 10% to $64.88 and could easily fall 5% (without breaking its current uptrend.... I would tighten stops on this name),

Inco (N) is a trade that has done very well, although my initial recommendation for a stop-loss at $44.70 would have allowed a lot more upside than my greedy followup advice to raise your stop (after the stock had advanced some. Copper fundamentals and technicals are strong due to chinese demand and mine outages. Hell, these miners can't even find enough tires to fit on their big dump trucks because the demand is so strong ( I'm not kidding, either). Stock is currently at $54, up from $46 reco- price... and up a lot from the $47.08 that I i got stopped out at!

Homebuilders appear played out, have already taken my gain in WCI (which was up more than 10% from my $25 reco-price. WLS had a 36% gain in ten days, after "the General" bought out his company.

Ryerson Inc is up about 10% from the $24 reco-price, while the cup-and-handle looks intact, would still raise your stop loss price to lock in at least half of the current gains. These guys had some accounting issues, unbeknownst to me when i first glanced at their chart.

ASEI- Stock muscled from $84.65 to $92 after I recommended it on a pullback. It has since come down to $81, although fundamentals of port-security and xray machines appears intact. If you were following trailing-stop-loss rules though, you should already be out of this name, hopefully with a gain. Last resistance/support level on the chart is in the $73 range...

HRS- recommended the stock at $43.2 before it powered up to $47...only problem was it gapped up the next day, so entry would have been impossible. No position was seriously looked at due to this glaring issue.... (although I look like a genius for posting the chart when i did! lol)-

NYX/ISE - All of the stock exchanges have been battered, and are down 20%+...interestingly, I was fundamentally negative and was specifically citing a technical breakdown in their charts.... for instance, NYX had a dark cloud, then a gravestone doji (w/ negative follow through at $87 level) and ISE had a huge bearish engulfing day in mid-March. This was a major missed opportunity for me, which I didn't engage in because I was too wussy to initiate the trade with tight stop losses (fear of getting executed?) - missed out on +20% within a month

GCT- This REIT has traded higher between 1-5%, as well as paying out a 2% dividend since my posting. In classic rock-paper-scissors style, I'm hoping potential for a buyout trumps any accounting issues. Also, they canned the CFO for being a pansy-ass...can't say I blame them. Continuing to hold (+3% currently)

ERTS- Shorted some ERTS at $54.90. Should have shorted more at $56.30. Some buttwipe at Lazard Capital actually said this company is a buy, because its trading at 30x PEAK earnings in 2010, which figures in all these optimistic assumptions panning out over the next 5 years. Inco and Phelps Dodge are 10x earnings RIGHT now at their peak...what kind of weenie pays 30x earnings 5 years from now? I thought all that "new age" and "internet" crap went out of style already? Someone needs to call that analyst up and tell him " Year 1999 called, it wants its hype back". This stock is a total terd trading at 50x earnings...i saw their recently released James Bond Game trading at $18 used at Gamestop yesterday.... War of the Monsters (circa 2003) is still trading at $29??? Talk about precipitous decline in pricing.... I promise to cover my short-shares when ERTS stock is priced less than the cost of their average new game price (currently $39.99).

Insider plays- this wasn't a recommendation of the companies I cited, so much as an example of situations where perhaps buying off of insider trading is much more helpful than trying to fundamentally grasp what is going on at a small public ocmpany.

Wednesday, April 05, 2006


These are several examples of small cap companies that hit my radar screen, for which the insider buying would be the primary factor motivating a purchase of the shares... either due to losses at the company or extremely limited insight/disclosure from the company, due to their small size, etc. NKBS was actually found on my value screen back in the 1's, while CFS and KNOL I've been watching go up 50-200%, respectively.

GCT/KRG are examples of REITS with strong insider buying that I've put a little bit of money into, but I'm nearing the point where I will simply put a significant amount of money in these small caps without forcing myself to do a complete due diligence on the company. KNOL and ARTG are terrific examples of why I would be willing to buy based on insider activity alone, although that does create a dilemna on where to set a stop-loss level at.....