Thursday, July 16, 2009

Goldman forcing CIT into liquidation?

As analysts are furiously attempting to figure out whether CIT will be allowed further out on the government dole (and Geithner indicates they have authority/ability, but not necessarily the desire to assist CIT).......

It is interesting to note that Goldman Sachs claims no "net exposure" on its CIT secured credit line ($1.5Bln drawn/$3.0Bln commitment).

With Goldman in a secured creditor position and significant short positions (via long unsecured CDS), and a high likelihood that Goldman has "hedged" itself against more than its $3.0Bln secured exposure...... Goldman stands to benefit the most from no government intervention. As a secured creditor, their recoveries will be higher on their loans than the unsecured bonds. Additionally, if they push for immediate liquidations it could result in overly punitive haircuts on unsecured creditors (i.e- overly large gains on unsecured CDS long positions).

Given the fact that the government still has GE on the dole for north of $70Bln, what exactly is the major constraint on lending CIT a few billion (aside from the fact that it does not help Goldman's book?) I for one don't like any of this bailout BS..... but there is clearly something wrong with liquidating a company simply to benefit Goldman's trading book.

PS- If it were to be found out that Goldman had "net negative exposure" to CIT (i.e- $5.0Bln unsecured CDS long against a $1.5Bln secured exposure), would Goldman have committed a violation of securities law/disclosure requirements....since they claimed to have "no material exposure".

Interestingly, Goldman is reported to have "hedged" itself on $20Bln in AIG exposure, in spite of only $10Bln of insurance. One should expect a similar "hedge" on CIT....the real question, why did our corrupt regulators solicit Goldman's opinion when they have a profit-motive to see the company fail? Ironically, its not Goldman (whose stated purpose is to make large profits) that should have people going to jail, but the former Goldman-officials and bureaucrats that are abusing their office in an effort to bankroll Goldman.

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